No single crash. Capex growth decelerates from 2027, second-tier names and neoclouds reprice hard, GPU depreciation reality dents big-tech EPS, and money rotates toward value, EM ex-China and defensives. Index drifts sideways-to-down in nominal terms while the bubble deflates out of the credit layer first.
Triggers to watch
Hyperscalers guide 2027 capex flat or down
Neocloud refinancing at visibly worse terms
GPU price cuts / write-downs hit earnings
Playbook pointers
Favor diversified large-caps over AI-concentrated funds
IT services becomes interesting again on valuation + relief
Avoid leveraged plays on the neocloud/SPV complex
Melt-Up Continues
3–12 months25% probability
The financing machine keeps working: securitization absorbs supply, Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs succeed, earnings keep beating and capex guidance keeps rising. The bubble extends — historically bubbles run 2+ years past the point where valuation-based bears capitulate. Higher highs before any resolution.
Triggers to watch
Blockbuster lab IPOs absorbing $100B+ without breaking liquidity
Capex guides raised again into 2027
Productivity evidence finally shows in non-tech earnings
Playbook pointers
Participation justified with position sizing discipline
Pre-commit exit rules for AI-heavy allocations now
Keep staggered rebalancing triggers rather than all-or-nothing calls
Contained Crash (Rate-Cut Rescue)
any time; most likely 202720% probability
A discrete shock — a failed mega-refinancing, an IPO pulled, a lab solvency scare — takes the Nasdaq down 25–35%. The Fed cuts hard, hyperscalers backstop their ecosystem, and markets stabilize within quarters. Dot-com-style wealth destruction in the most exposed layer, but no banking crisis.
Triggers to watch
OpenAI or Anthropic funding round/IPO fails or reprices sharply
Oracle/neocloud debt raise pulls or defaults cascade
10Y yield breaks above 5% forcing de-risking
Playbook pointers
Hold dry powder / staggered buy lists ready
Do not catch falling neoclouds or SPV-linked paper
Use the dislocation to add quality IT, banks, consumption
Credit-Led Systemic Bust
2027–202915% probability
The bear case in full: circular financing unwinds — OpenAI's obligations crack, Oracle's RPO evaporates, SPV paper inside insurers/pensions marks down, private-credit losses surface — producing a 2008-flavored deleveraging, not a dot-com equity-only washout. Recession follows because AI capex has been carrying GDP growth.
Triggers to watch
Major lab insolvency or forced restructuring
Insurer/pension losses force asset sales across markets
Japan/yen-carry break compounds global tightening
Playbook pointers
Capital preservation mode: gilts/fixed income, gold allocation, cash ladder
Avoid all leverage; reduce equity beta systematically
Prepare shopping list of compounders for the aftermath
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE — Where We Sit in History
Cyclically-adjusted P/E at selected market peaks and today. Only 1929, 2000 and 2021 were more expensive. Live values move daily — use the link for the current reading.
Why this distribution rather than something more dramatic: the corpus's own strongest bears (ECB included) describe correction LIKELY, not certain; the financing layer adds genuine delay capacity; and the earnings core is real, which historically caps index-level damage short of 1929-style collapses unless credit contagion takes hold (the 15% tail). Conversely, pure melt-up-forever requires either productivity miracles showing up in non-tech earnings quickly, or indefinite credit tolerance for negative-FCF champions — possible, not probable. The middle scenarios dominate because that is where the evidence currently points: slowing second derivative, repricing edges, intact core.
A note on intellectual honesty: these probabilities are judgment, not measurement. They synthesize 157 sources whose median stance is bearish-but-timing-humble (63 of 88 video commentators lean bear; professional articles split closer to even, weighted by institutional weight toward 'correction likely'). Treat the numbers as a structured way to update as triggers fire — the watchlist in Chapter 7 tells you exactly what to monitor.